One of the advantages of waiting a few weeks after elections to write about them is that you have a chance for the “dust to settle” to take a minute to reflect on the current and future implications of the results. Besides, any immediate recap will simply be a rewrite of what the media has already produced, with little focus on the longer-term impacts.
2005 Governor Races: Harbinger of 2006 Results or Outstanding Campaigning?
Political pundits are divided on whether national issues will dominate voting decisions, or local concerns will be the deciding factor for voters in the important 2006 mid-term elections—it just depends on which party pundits you are listening to at any particular time.
During 2006, the control of both chambers of Congress and 36 governorships are up for grabs. Consequently, expect the two national parties to spin trends from the 2005 off year election as predictors of the 2006 mid-term elections.
For example, two key states (Virginia and New Jersey) saw Democrats win the governor’s seats despite what was, at times during the respective campaigns, neck-in-neck numbers. Virginia normally leans Republican, but Democrat Tim Kaine, the incumbent lieutenant governor and former Richmond mayor, was elected governor. A few states over in what is traditionally a Democratic strong hold, Democratic Senator Jon Corzine won the New Jersey governor’s spot after an expensive race.
Will these two Democratic wins be enough to propel other Democratic candidates to the forefront in 2006, or will these wins cause Republicans to fundraise more aggressively in targeted (i.e., threatened) campaigns? One scenario, painted immediately after November 8, was Republicans in the House losing a number of seats in the mid-term elections next fall. Others opined that President Bush could lose the Senate if Democrats build on momentum. And yet other groups are saying that because there were only a handful of 2005 contests, as opposed to the larger number of critical races in 2006, it is impossible to use these limited results as a litmus test for the future.
State Budgets and the Future of HOAs
What did the recent elections bode for states, and more importantly, possibly for CAI members? Taking a quick look at just one big issue, like taxes, homeowner/community associations will continue to have a role in relieving some pressure off of state and local resources because these associations provide services that traditionally may have been under the auspices of state or local governments. States are strapped for money.
For example, Mississippi Governor Barbour (R) submitted a $4.7 billion budget plan for next fiscal year, which is largely contingent on how much federal money the state receives for hurricane relief and how well the state's economy performs. Likewise, in neighboring Louisiana, the House agreed to $606 million in spending cuts to help close the nearly $1 billion hole in the state budget created by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Colorado Governor Owens (R) drafted a spending plan that allocates for transportation projects roughly two-thirds of the $440 million the state expects to have available because of the recent passage of Referendum C (that allows the state to keep and spend the revenue it collects under current rates for the next five years).
Nationally, the prospect of overhauling the tax code dangles like a brightly lit holiday decoration since a presidential “tax reform” panel issued recommendations to simplify the tax code for individuals and businesses. However, it remains to be seen if either chamber will pass such legislation next year (especially if aggressive campaigning takes up considerable time). Look for plenty of talk of holding tax reform hearings, but follow whether any timetable for legislative action is set. One way for this domestic concern to rise above others is for President Bush to promote tax code changes in his fiscal 2007 year budget.
A 2005 Issue That Could Linger Into 2008
For those candidates gearing up for 2008—and no, it is never too early in the serious game of politics to begin gearing up—2005’s natural disasters will have some effect. With multiple regions impacted by weather, funding discussions could become heated. Factors included in such debates: existing state budget deficits, decreased revenue bases (due to resident relocations), inadequate or no insurance coverage, and the larger philosophical discussions about whether or not it is even prudent to rebuild areas susceptible to future disasters and what additional help the federal government can/should provide. Because of the potential for any state or region to be impacted by man-made or natural disasters, this issue could be the preverbal political “hot potato” for 2006 campaigns as state and local governments realize tight fiscal constraints and if the federal government becomes reluctant to exceed its budget line items to pay for reconstruction and rebuilding. So, depending on how the financing and rebuilding goes, look for these issues to be revisited during the 2008 campaign season.
The “Will She or Won’t She?” H Game
The question of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s political future is a popular guessing game played both inside and outside of the Beltway, and one that will continue well past the 2006 elections. Whether a candidate for higher office, a future cabinet official, or a party powerbroker, the speculation continues.